The Gray Rhino is not just a beautiful majestical “unicorn” of the African wildland, a Gray Rhino is also a metaphor for highly probable, highly impactful events that can significantly disrupt our way of life. For us, Emergency Managers' recent Gray Rhinos have been Hurricane Katrina, 9/11 Attacks, COVID-19, and the attacks on the power grid. The threats of these events were identified early and loomed long enough to be highly probable, and the risks were highly impactful. When we notice a Gray Rhino looming in the distance, what can we do to avoid being trampled? The typical response to a Gray Rhino starts with denying or minimizing the existence of the threat, next we muddle along instead of acting decisively, then we play the blame game while scrambling to find solutions, and eventually, we reach an alert/ panic state when the rhino is about to charge, finally, we do something sometimes before being trampled but often not until after the damage is done.
We saw all this play out during the world's response to COVID-19, and here in the U.S., we are seeing it again with the attacks on our power grid systems. The difference in outcomes when faced with a Gray Rhino comes down to character, luck, circumstance, strategy, and leadership. We have to recognize the dangers of groupthink in our societies and seek out diverse voices for fresh ideas to address the Gray Rhinos far enough off, on the horizon that we have time to affect the outcome.
We can avoid being trampled by a Gray Rhino by learning to recognize the Rhino, define the Rhino, not standing still and acting, never wasting a crisis for there are lessons to be learned, staying downwind, and acting when the threat is still far away, and being a Rhino spotter and keeper.
Right now, it appears that a Gray Rhino is on the horizon for us that can not be ignored for it will have high impacts globally, needs a global response, has begun its charge, and gaining speed, Climate Change. What will we do?
Take Aways
When looking for solutions to Gray Rhinos we need to form our teams with cognitive diversity and seek independent predictions to inform the planning process.
Use a variety of existing and emerging technologies to gather data for your predictive analysis. Include age variation as you diversify your team.
Question the norm and be wary of “this is the way we have always done it” ways of doing things. If you ever get the answer of “this is the way we have always done it” to your question of why are we doing this? The old way of doing it needs to change.
Muddling is an enemy of action, but sometimes it’s the only choice.
Be sure to understand your rhino and who it threatens, learn what you can about your rhino for information is powerful, and remember you won’t always get it right the first time, but every error is a step toward the right answer.
Frame every threat as an opportunity and never let a crisis go to waste.
“We have to recognize the dangers of groupthink in our societies and seek out diverse voices for fresh ideas to address the Gray Rhinos far enough off, on the horizon that we have time to affect the outcome.”
“Right now, it appears that a Gray Rhino is on the horizon for us that can not be ignored for it will have high impacts globally, needs a global response, has begun its charge, and gaining speed, Climate Change. What will we do?”
I'm not clear who wrote this article, but the grammar is a mess, and in my opinion, these two sentences contradict each other. The norm should be questioned more if climate change is deemed to be the Gray Rhino.