Emergency Managers Must Tackle the Gray Rhino of Climate Change

The other day, I was sitting on the patio enjoying a dinner and a deep conversation with fellow emergency management professionals. We were overlooking a serene lake in Anchorage, Alaska, watching planes take off and land. As the evening progressed, our conversation naturally gravitated towards one of the most pressing challenges of our time: climate change. We discussed how, as emergency managers, we must come to terms with the fact that while we may not be able to stop climate change, we can and must manage its consequences. Our roles have become more critical than ever, especially as we witness longer fire seasons, stronger storms, and more frequent floods and droughts.

In many ways, an emergency manager's role has always been preparation, response, and recovery. But with the ever-increasing impacts of climate change, our jobs now require us to think not just about the immediate aftermath of disasters but about the long-term resilience of our communities. The consequences of climate change are no longer theoretical—they are honest and here.

In our discussion, I was reminded of two powerful metaphors often used to describe different risks: the black swan and the gray rhino. A black swan event is rare and unpredictable, an outlier that no one sees coming—like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic. These events are sudden, shocking, and can have massive consequences. On the other hand, the gray rhino represents a highly probable, high-impact event that everyone can see coming but is often ignored until it’s too late. The gray rhino is the threat charging right at us, but we fail to take decisive action for various reasons.